![]() ![]() Those investments would have to be written off at enormous costs. “US corporations have invested billions in both to take advantage of NAFTA. “Trump would be encouraging huge costs,” says economist Lee Branstetter at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. And so you put a tariff in place, assuming that any other country decides to place a similar tariff on us, then the net effect is going to be a huge recession here in the Midwest.” “The problem is that, particularly in the Midwest, we’re huge exporters, we’re net exporters. ![]() “That’s not going to save jobs,” says Mike Hicks at Ball State University in Muncie, Indiana. Bush.Ī president could technically withdraw from the treaty without congressional approval, but many economists strongly agree that scrapping NAFTA could have a devastating impact on the economies of all three nations. The treaty was formally signed into agreement by President Bill Clinton in 1994, but it was negotiated by Republican President George H.W. In order for Trump to place a tariff on heating and cooling products made in Mexico coming to the US, first, he’d have to withdraw from NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. He’s going to be the president, whether we like it or not, and I hope he is successful, or it will be devastating on this country.” “They were looking for something different, and it happened to be Trump.”īut Jones thinks Trump was just making campaign promises that he can’t keep. “If it wasn’t Trump, if Captain Kangaroo would’ve run, he might’ve had a chance of winning because people were so fed up with the establishment politics,” says Jones. Still, Jones says a lot of his workers got swept up by Trump’s anti-trade messages. Jones didn’t vote for Trump, and the United Steelworkers endorsed Hillary Clinton. “So we’re going to hold him accountable to his campaign promises.” ![]() He said he’d keep jobs in the Midwest by slapping a 35 percent tax on Carrier products coming back from Mexico.Ībout that, “when you guarantee something 100 percent, I like those odds,” says Chuck Jones, president of the United Steelworkers local 1999. When Trump came to Indiana last spring, he gave a “100 percent guarantee” that the Carrier factory would stay open under a Trump presidency. It was a strong, populist message that resonated. Many workers in Indianapolis put their faith in Trump’s tough talk against trade deals and globalization. Carrier will start moving to Mexico in June 2017 and expects to complete the transfer by 2019. Carrier workers I met, say: Thanks, but I want my job. But they did send an email highlighting the severance package being offered to workers - which includes things like extended health care for six months and education benefits for up to four years for job retraining. United Technologies turned down my interview request. And going to Mexico - $20 an hour to $3 an hour - that says it all right there.” “I think they don’t have any concerns, it’s all about shareholders' profit. But in February, the company said it was laying off 1,400 workers and shifting production to Monterrey, Mexico. Fugate has worked there for 25 years.Ĭarrier’s parent company, United Technologies, reported sales of $56 billion and $4 billion in net income last year. I met Fugate at Sully’s Bar and Grill, an Indianapolis joint just across the way from the Carrier factory where they’ve built heating and cooling systems since the 1950s. “I’ve been a registered Democrat my whole life, always voted Democratic,” says Fugate. And he's a big fan of Trump - but with a twist. He's a middle-aged white man with a blue-collar job. If you were to close your eyes and imagine the stereotypical guy in the Rust Belt who got Donald Trump elected, someone like Mike Fugate might come to mind. ![]()
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